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Just 1% of all US homes changed hands so far this year
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Washington, DC CNN —Just 1% of all US homes changed hands in the first half of this year, the lowest share in at least a decade, according to data from Redfin. Just 11 of every 1,000 two-and three-bedroom urban homes have changed hands in 2023. Only 6 of every 1,000 homes in San Jose have sold so far in 2023, similar to the low turnover rates in Oakland and San Diego. The turnover rate shrank most from the pre-pandemic years in the suburbs, with 16 of every 1,000 four-bedroom or more suburban houses changing hands so far this year, two-thirds as many as 2019. That’s not happening, because so many of those homeowners have low mortgage rates.”
Persons: , Taylor Marr, , Marr, Heather Mahmood, Corley Organizations: DC CNN, Redfin, , . Workers Locations: Washington, , California, San Jose, Oakland, San Diego, Nashville, Austin, Newark , New Jersey, Phoenix
Investors, worried about the economic atmosphere and the recent regional banking collapse, breathed a sigh of relief at the results. Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, commented on the bank’s Friday earnings call that non-bank financial rivals were “dancing in the streets” as regulators get ready to increase bank capital requirements. “This is great news for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone,” Dimon said of the proposed regulations. The change, they say, will increase the financial system’s resilience following the failures of three regional banks earlier this year. “The capital in the industry is sufficient,” said Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on his company’s earnings call Tuesday morning.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, ” Dimon, , Jeremy Barnum, Barnum, don’t, Brian Moynihan, “ They’ve, Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Tammy Duckworth, Martin Gruenberg, , Taylor Marr, That’s, they’re, Bryan Mena, Neil Saunders Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, JPMorgan, Blackstone, of America, CNBC, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Deposit Insurance, Redfin, Retail, Commerce Department Locations: New York, Silicon, Basel, Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren , Connecticut
A second metric the firm uses is the difference in weighted compete score, which measures the direction the market is trending in. It's based on a year-over-year change in the overall compete score. A good way to look at the data is by considering both the overall score and the changing score. Marr says investors should pay more attention to the difference in the compete score, and specifically, areas that are facing steep increases versus declines. Below is a list of June's year-over-year difference in weighted compete score listed from lowest to highest positive change and the overall weighted compete score.
Persons: Taylor Marr, Marr, it's Organizations: MLS, Boston Locations: East, Redfin, It's, Lake County , Illinois, Chicago, Austin, Nashville, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Montgomery County, Columbus, Baltimore, Elgin, IL, Louis, Camden, NJ, Akron, York, NY, Providence, RI, Madison, WI, Haven, Newark , NJ, Bridgeport, County, Hartford, Milwaukee, Cincinnati
Redfin ranked the only four cities in the U.S. where it's cheaper to buy than rent. But there are a few cities where taking on that mortgage — instead of paying monthly rent — is the smarter financial decision. Top 3 cities where it's cheaper to buy than to rentDetroit, Mich. Philadelphia, Pa. Cleveland, Ohio In Detroit, the number one city on the list, the typical home is 24% less expensive to buy than rent. The average estimated monthly mortgage payment for homebuyers is $1,296, compared with an average estimated monthly rent of $1,697. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ranked as the second city in the U.S. where it's cheaper to buy a home than rent.
Persons: Redfin, Taylor Marr, Marr, Jon Lovette, Cleveland , Ohio Ken Redding Organizations: Detroit, Istock, U.S, General Motors, Ford, America, Chrysler, DigitalVision, Cleveland, Bank, Getty Locations: U.S, Mich, F11photo, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pa . Cleveland , Ohio, Chicago, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, New York City, Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio
Active home listings dropped 7% in May to the lowest number Redfin has ever recorded going back to 2012. That's due to high mortgage rates, which have discouraged owners from selling their homes. Meanwhile, pending home sales dropped 16%, a sign that the spring homebuying rush has faltered in the face of higher mortgage rates. Affordability and homebuying activity won't pick up until mortgage rates drop more meaningfully, Marr previously told Insider, though he said that was unlikely to happen anytime soon. He predicted mortgage rates would likely ease to just around 6% by the end of the year.
Persons: , Redfin, Redfin's, Taylor Marr, Marr Organizations: Service Locations: Redfin
According to Redfin, there were only 533,310 newly listed homes for sale in March, down from 650,105 during the same time period in 2022. In markets like Durham's, the flood of prospective buyers is keeping home prices elevated, bucking predictions last year for declines. According to Redfin, the median sale price of a home in the town was $420,000 in April 2023, up 20% year-over-year. During the month, 33% of homes were sold over asking price. The house with a pool ended up selling for $875,000, some $75,000 more than the asking price, the website showed.
The housing market is frozen, and affordability is unlikely to get better soon, experts told Insider. Activity has slowed thanks to high mortgage rates, which have pushed both buyers and sellers out of the market. That's largely because the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates high over the next year, which will influence mortgage rates to stay elevated. Housing in limboIt's a precarious time for the US housing market, with activity slowing significantly in recent months as the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates. Mortgage rates — and likewise, home affordability — will hinge on the Fed's future interest rate moves and any subsequent volatility in rate markets.
New listings of homes for sale are down more than 20% nationwide, according to Redfin. "The lack of new listings is driving an unseasonal decline in the total number of homes for sale." Nearly half of homes on the market sell within two weeks, the highest portion in almost a year. "The lack of new listings is driving an unseasonal decline in the total number of homes for sale." "High mortgage rates have caused some homebuyers to bow out of the market," Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr said.
download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyBut homebuyers' monthly mortgage payments still soared to a new all-time high. Housing affordability is as awful as ever due to the high rates and the lack of homes for sale. However, there's no such luck: as home prices retreated, the typical US homebuyer's monthly mortgage payment soared to $2,538, a new all-time high. Higher mortgage rates are freezing current homeowners, too. "The good news is that people who already own homes have locked in relatively low mortgage payments," Marr said in a September housing report.
You know, long run mortgage rates are expected to be around five-and-a-half, six." Economists at other real-estate firms share similar views to Olsen's in respect to mortgage rates, at least for the rest of 2023. Plus, when mortgage rates eventually fall, one can refinance into a lower rate, improving an investor's positive cash flow. In the meantime, there's a way that buyers can get around high mortgage rates, Olsen said. Many sellers are offering concessions, like paying for repairs and helping pay for a rate buydown.
Some tips include asking for concessions, buying new, waiting, and buying in cash. In a recent post, Redfin economists shared their top tips for homebuyers right now. 7 tips for homebuyersThe first tip from Chen Zhao, Redfin's economics research team lead, is to wait if you can. Considering how high mortgage rates are, a rate buydown is a concession that could help shoppers buy themselves some time for rates to fall. One counterpoint to this is that home values just about everywhere have also climbed since the start of the pandemic.
Homebuyers are gaining back negotiating power as high mortgage rates slows demand. According to Redfin, sellers are offering concessions to buyers at the highest rate since 2020. High mortgage rates have killed affordability and therefore demand, so home prices are starting to come down. But in addition to falling prices, homebuyers are benefitting from extra deal sweeteners as they look to take advantage of reduced competition, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin. RedfinSellers have had to navigate an environment where mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last year, from around 3% to at times over 7%.
The 15 cheapest US cities in the US
  + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Personal-finance company Kiplinger laid out the cities in the US with the lowest cost of living. Personal-finance company Kiplinger identified America's cheapest cities by calculating the living expenses — including prices for housing, groceries, transportation, healthcare, and miscellaneous goods and services — of 267 urban areas in the US that have a population of at least 50,000. According to their methodology, America's cheapest city is Harlingen, Texas, a small city of less than 72,000 people at the southern tip of Texas near the Mexican border. "People have been saying, 'I don't want to be in these big cities,'" he added. The other affordable cities on Kiplinger's list are largely in the South and the Midwest.
Mortgage rates have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, marking the largest drop since 2008. And over the last six weeks, mortgage rates have declined more than three quarters of a point — marking the largest drop since 2008. November's reading highlights the negative impact higher mortgage rates have had on purchasing demand — and ultimately the entire housing ecosystem. "The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes." Indeed, a combination of surging inflation and higher interest rates — the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points during its November meeting — sent mortgage interest rates soaring in November.
This week, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage stood at 6.33% – marking the fourth consecutive week of declines. Mortgage rates have declined three quarters of a point over the last four weeks, representing the largest drop since 2008. Over the last four weeks, mortgage rates have declined three quarters of a point — marking the largest drop since 2008. The recent downturn reverses a protracted period of hikes in mortgage rates and could make home purchases more affordable for prospective buyers. There is a flip-side to the latest slide in mortgage rates, however.
The Fed's fight against inflation has led to high mortgage interest rates, cooling housing demands. As demand falls, Ivy Zelman, a real-estate anaylist, said national home prices could fall by 20%. As long as mortgage rates remain elevated, Zelman said housing demand will continue to shrink — ultimately resulting in even steeper price cuts from sellers. This latest slide in rates is just 0.59% below the two-decade high that the rate hit just three weeks earlier. But as Zelman herself suggested, if the Fed continues with further rate hikes and mortgage rates remain elevated in 2023, this will become the likely culprit to a protracted housing slump.
Rent prices in the largest U.S. markets dipped for a second consecutive month in October, to less than $2,000 for the first time since April, new data reveals. In 50 of the largest U.S. metro areas, median rent prices declined 0.9% in October, dropping from an average of $2,002 to $1,983, according to online brokerage Redfin's latest data. But there are 11 cities — up from five in September — where rent prices have defied rising inflation and are now cheaper than they were a year ago, per Redfin's data. Additionally, "persistent inflation is shrinking renter budgets," which is "causing rent growth to cool," says Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. To determine median rent, Redfin analyzed the costs of newly available leases in October using Rent.com data for the 50 largest U.S. metro areas.
Rents dropped nationally by 0.9% from September to October, according to a Redfin report. While there isn't relief for renters everywhere, the data is a good sign. Other good news for renters: The number of cities that saw year-over-year declines in rent doubled compared to the month prior. "It will likely be a while before renters see meaningful relief, given that rents are still up more than wages," Marr said, even though inflation may start to cool off. Landlords, including Equity Residential, one of the largest in the country, reported declining rent increases last quarter.
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage just saw its biggest weekly drop in more than 40 years. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage just saw its biggest weekly drop in more than 40 years, according to Freddie Mac. A better-than-expected inflation report last week led to the biggest single-day mortgage-rate drop on record, according to Redfin. If interest-rate volatility declines, mortgage rates could keep falling as well, narrowing the distance from the 10-year Treasury yield. If that spread reverts to the historical average, that would put the 30-year mortgage rate at about 4.5%.
With mortgage rates on the rise and buyer demand collapsing, home prices are poised to stay high into 2023. Soaring interest rates have ripped through the housing market in 2022, driving mortgage rates to highs not seen since the peak of the mid-2000s housing bubble. Demand for rental properties has rallied as Americans shy away from buying, leading costs to soar at apartments and rental homes, too. For those who don't own their home and haven't locked in a low mortgage rate, shelter is as expensive as it's ever been. Rate hikes have lifted mortgage rates and generally made housing far less affordable.
Pandemic hot spots are among the most affected by the slowdown as homes sit on the market. Prices for luxury homes are still rising in all of the country's 50 biggest metropolitan areas. The cracks in the market are beginning to show in cities like Denver, Austin, and Detroit, which all saw an influx of monied buyers during the pandemic. The same cities that saw inventory linger saw the largest increase in new luxury listings coming onto the market in the third quarter. The median sale price of luxury homes still rose in the 50 most populous metros tracked by Redfin.
The shift to remote work fueled 60% of the pandemic-era home price rally, a new Fed study found. For every percentage point that remote work increased, home values rose 0.9 points, the researchers found. Remote work increased to 16 percentage points from November 2019 to November 2021, according to the study. That implies that remote work alone lifted home prices 15% over that period, and accounted for more than 60% of the overall increase in home values. "This is especially true when we look at the geographical implications of remote work.
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